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Thread: Pestilence or: How I Learned to Worry Constantly and Live with COVID

  1. #8741
    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sacul View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    On a more serious note:

    Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

    In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.
    If you look a little more closely at the article you'll find that the lead author is a 'a 16-year-old high school student' from 'Turner Fenton Secondary School, Brampton, ON Canada'.
    I agree thats a bit odd. The primary author is a proper MA, Md etc from Harvard. I have some citations from my MsC but i did not get a high school dude to co -author that. I tried to do a deeper dive in both those guys but they are all over the place. Gave up after 5 minutes tbh.
    The author who is listed first is an adult, but the footnote shows that he is the 'corresponding author', 'the person who handles the manuscript and correspondence during the publication process'. The lead author is the schoolkid. And it shows.

    I was expecting multivariate analysis and significance testing, but instead we get a simple linear curve fitted to a scatter diagram. It seems obvious that just plotting vaccination rates against cases per million across wildly different countries wouldn't be meaningful. If you could control for GDP per capita, you might get some insight. But no. I'd argue the correlation we're seeing is that countries who can't afford vaccines, also can't afford an extensive testing program.

    The US counties analysis is weaker still. The author doesn't even use a scatter diagram here. I wonder why he changed methodology - hint, it was because a scatter diagram wouldn't give him the result he wanted. Instead he plots the data and just makes assertions about what the graph shows. Have a look for yourselves:



    Based on this graph the author asserts that, 'There also appears to be no significant signaling of COVID-19 cases decreasing with higher percentages of population fully vaccinated.' That looks like the opposite of the truth to me. Apart from those counties where less that 5% of the population has been vaccinated, the trend of fewer cases in more fully vaccinated counties seems clear. And I'd suspect that a tiny number of counties where no-one has been vaccinated might be a bit atypical, for example, massively rural.

    But what the paper lacks in rigorous statistical analysis, it makes up for in ranty editorializing about 'humility and respect'.

    This is my biggest problem with conspiracy theorists. They are hyper-skeptical of the information they are getting from the 'establishment', but show them a paper, any paper, that agrees with their view and they swallow it hook, line and sinker. Even sharing it round forums and worse social media, to prove their point. Passing off shit 'papers' as evidence is akin to Grandads on FB sharing utterly untrue stories that happened to a friend of a friend. Lief, in a small way, posts like yours do real damage.
    controlling for population density would also be telling

  2. #8742

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Coutu View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    On a more serious note:

    Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

    In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.
    If you look a little more closely at the article you'll find that the lead author is a 'a 16-year-old high school student' from 'Turner Fenton Secondary School, Brampton, ON Canada'.
    Lief is listening to youtube as "science" I doubt he knows how to look at things in depth
    TBH, there's nothing wrong with that. There are tons of brilliant scientific channels on YT.

  3. #8743
    rufuske's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Coutu View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    On a more serious note:

    Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

    In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.
    If you look a little more closely at the article you'll find that the lead author is a 'a 16-year-old high school student' from 'Turner Fenton Secondary School, Brampton, ON Canada'.
    Lief is listening to youtube as "science" I doubt he knows how to look at things in depth
    TBH, there's nothing wrong with that. There are tons of brilliant scientific channels on YT.
    Have I told you about our lord and saviour PBS Digital channel productions this week? They're really good, you know.

  4. #8744
    Jack Coutu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rufuske View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Hel OWeen View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Coutu View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    On a more serious note:

    Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

    In summary, even as efforts should be made to encourage populations to get vaccinated it should be done so with humility and respect. Stigmatizing populations can do more harm than good. Importantly, other non-pharmacological prevention efforts (e.g., the importance of basic public health hygiene with regards to maintaining safe distance or handwashing, promoting better frequent and cheaper forms of testing) needs to be renewed in order to strike the balance of learning to live with COVID-19 in the same manner we continue to live a 100 years later with various seasonal alterations of the 1918 Influenza virus.
    If you look a little more closely at the article you'll find that the lead author is a 'a 16-year-old high school student' from 'Turner Fenton Secondary School, Brampton, ON Canada'.
    Lief is listening to youtube as "science" I doubt he knows how to look at things in depth
    TBH, there's nothing wrong with that. There are tons of brilliant scientific channels on YT.
    Have I told you about our lord and saviour PBS Digital channel productions this week? They're really good, you know.
    If you think that's his diet then I have some news for ya.

  5. #8745
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    Quote Originally Posted by duckduck View Post
    But what the paper lacks in rigorous statistical analysis, it makes up for in ranty editorializing about 'humility and respect'.
    I find it infuriating that these shitcunts asking for humility and respect demonstrate neither and then they throw a hissy fit when you put a mirror in front of them.
    Guns make the news, science doesn't.

  6. #8746
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    Rigorous statistical analysis? Lol. You do know very very few people in academia actually know statistics? It's all just plugging numbers into statistical software and publishing when it looks good enough to get those sweet research points for tenure.

    I even game the system myself lmao. My university gives points for submission then the points get upgraded if the paper is accepted, but it's not cumulative if it happens in one evaluation period (e.g. 5 points for submission gets upgraded to 10 points, but it's not 5+10 points). So what I do is, I double-dip by waiting until the end of my evaluation period to submit all the stuff I want published, grab the points, then when they get accepted in the next evaluation period, I can grab those points again and it's cumulative so I get e.g. 5+10 points.

    It's all a game, bro.

  7. #8747
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    "investigated"
    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    WTF I hate white people now...
    Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Dashboard

  8. #8748
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    Bill Gates mind control updated to 3.0 !

    Hope I don't get fever, first two jabs were just tingly shoulder for 2 days.

    There was like 5x more people in line for 3rd shot than for the 1st, and we are still around 40ish % of total population vaccinated. A bit over 50% of over 18, and it has been like that since start of summer.
    Government is waiting for elections and doesn't want to lose ratings because of mandatory vaccinations or strict measures or anything... So they are just blaming the "irresponsible population" and having minimal measures which are barely enforced. And antivaxxers are still on all pro government tabloid TV talk shows .

  9. #8749
    Lief Siddhe's Avatar
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    As always, you should write a stern letter to NIH for publishing conspiracy theories

    In other news, Fauci is about to become the scapegoat in the USA I think, gotta keep the folks entertained and the profits rolling

    In Major Shift, NIH Admits Funding Risky Virus Research in Wuhan

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021...earch-in-wuhan
    I was somewhere around Old Man Star, on the edge of Essence, when drugs began to take hold.

  10. #8750
    Super Moderator DonorGlobal Moderator whispous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    As always, you should write a stern letter to NIH for publishing conspiracy theories

    In other news, Fauci is about to become the scapegoat in the USA I think, gotta keep the folks entertained and the profits rolling

    In Major Shift, NIH Admits Funding Risky Virus Research in Wuhan

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021...earch-in-wuhan
    Outright, blatent conspiracy theories followed by you posting it here with a nod and a wink and no outright statement of what your point it.



    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    locking again cos you're all getting weird and being autists about tyres

  11. #8751

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    Quote Originally Posted by whispous View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    As always, you should write a stern letter to NIH for publishing conspiracy theories

    In other news, Fauci is about to become the scapegoat in the USA I think, gotta keep the folks entertained and the profits rolling

    In Major Shift, NIH Admits Funding Risky Virus Research in Wuhan

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021...earch-in-wuhan
    Outright, blatent conspiracy theories followed by you posting it here with a nod and a wink and no outright statement of what your point it.
    Is Vanity Fair considered a right-wing/alt-right publication? Genuinely curious.

  12. #8752
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    Again this comes back to the lack of oversight and murky deals done in the fields of genetic research. You have these chains of funding and research partnerships that are often designed to circumvent oversight in particular nations by moving the research to nations with weak or no oversight.

    I have no idea if Fauci lied or whether he didn't know what the was being done in Wuhan. There is also a semantic argument going on about what "gain-of-function" means - most people would think that making a virus more virulent was gain-of-function while researchers may state that it was due to natural mutations and hence not gain-of-function.

    But it all serves to undermine trust in the system and conjures up images of Bond villains creating plagues in sercet island laborotories.

    None of this in any way confirms that COVID came from a lab. But it reinforces the mistrust that some people have of this type of research.

  13. #8753
    Super Moderator DonorGlobal Moderator whispous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stormus View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by whispous View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lief Siddhe View Post
    As always, you should write a stern letter to NIH for publishing conspiracy theories

    In other news, Fauci is about to become the scapegoat in the USA I think, gotta keep the folks entertained and the profits rolling

    In Major Shift, NIH Admits Funding Risky Virus Research in Wuhan

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021...earch-in-wuhan
    Outright, blatent conspiracy theories followed by you posting it here with a nod and a wink and no outright statement of what your point it.
    Is Vanity Fair considered a right-wing/alt-right publication? Genuinely curious.
    Conspiracy theories are not limited to the right.



    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    locking again cos you're all getting weird and being autists about tyres

  14. #8754
    Movember '12 Best Facial Hair Movember 2012Donor Lallante's Avatar
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    The existence of disease research is a conspiracy theory apparently, rather than totally banal

  15. #8755
    The Pube Whisperer Maximillian's Avatar
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    Disease research is fine, it just needs proper oversight and safety protocols.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...rity_incidents.

  16. #8756
    Super Moderator DonorGlobal Moderator whispous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post
    The existence of disease research is a conspiracy theory apparently, rather than totally banal
    Leif is clearly nudging and winking along the line that the gubment made covid19 and released it



    Quote Originally Posted by teds :D View Post
    locking again cos you're all getting weird and being autists about tyres

  17. #8757
    Movember 2012 Elriche Oshego's Avatar
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    Lief take a break from posting and play some Vermintide man.

  18. #8758
    Movember 2011Movember 2012 Nordstern's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whispous View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lallante View Post
    The existence of disease research is a conspiracy theory apparently, rather than totally banal
    Leif is clearly nudging and winking along the line that the gubment made covid19 and released it
    I don't understand why people keep promoting this. It's not like Republicans are willing to actually punish China even if it were true.
    "Holy shit, I ask you to stop being autistic and you debate what autistic is." - spasm
    Quote Originally Posted by Larkonis Trassler View Post
    WTF I hate white people now...
    Johns Hopkins CSSE COVID-19 Dashboard

  19. #8759
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    They just need to pretend they'll punish china for long enough to win votes. What they actually do after they get the votes doesn't matter.
    Look, the wages you withheld from the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of Hosts. You have lived on earth in luxury and self-indulgence. You have fattened yourselves for slaughter.

  20. #8760
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    This pandemic shows mathematics especially statistics is difficult.....
    God damn statistics is most likely the easiest branch of mathematics, the problem is it can be gamed and tweaked with "parameters, confidence, samples, bias" but it has fancy words and graphs.


    Look at this
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_function
    It looks fancy even complicated but in principle it's weighted data with a factor

    or this
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_s...hted_deviation
    This article may be too technical for most readers to understand. Please help improve it to make it understandable to non-experts, without removing the technical details. (April 2021) (Learn how and when to remove this template message)
    lol


    Again just glance over this
    https://www.callingbullshit.org/case_studies.html

    Cause and correlation are two very different beasts
    https://www.callingbullshit.org/case...mortality.html



    One more
    If only more would use this in statistics
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propag...of_uncertainty
    Last edited by Jori McKie; October 27 2021 at 07:56:22 AM.
    Does a population have informed consent when that population is not taught the inner workings of its monetary system, and then is drawn, all unknowing, into economic adventures?

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