Ukraine: Russian Invasion

[Nordstern]

Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.

[Candy Crush]

Drone warfare evolution



It was originally developed by Heineken to deliver beer.

[Spaztick]

Regarding retaking Crimea & ordering some sort of nuclear strike, the two interesting questions probably are "would Russia consider Ukraine retaking Crimea to be a existential threat", and "does anybody on the Russian side actually give a shit about rules lawyering at that point anymore".

I agree that Putin appears he doesn't give a shit about rules anymore, well kind of, otherwise he would have called this officially a war and everything that comes with that already. He has to fear that an all out official war will result in a domestic revolution. On the other hand he has to consider the reaction of the West and somewhat China if he uses a tactical nuke so he is kind of restricted aka bind to rules.

You can discuss the reaction of the West in case of a tactical nuke but if you think it through even if you start with a low response, after escalation and escalation, it will end in a nuclear war at least on a tactical level in Europe. I really hope we won't see that end of the rope.

We'll see, I think he's doing this to make his mark in the history books. If it requires him to push the button he might do it if it means he'll be remembered infamously.

[Zeekar]

Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.

It will end badly but russia will not be occupied you retard.

[tulip]

Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.

It will end badly but russia will not be occupied you retard.

Use of nukes would result in Russia's borders being sealed from the outside and literally everyone refusing to do business. I doubt the regime would last over 5 years.

It's a big country so internal balcanisation if the government fails isn't too far fetched.

[Lilalaunebör]

I dont know what would happen, but i do know that China has a security agreement with Ukraine in the case of (a) tactial nuke(s) being deployed. So yeah, Russia would lose one of it's only two remaining trading partners of any size, and India might follow suite.

[Malcanis]

I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.

[Spartan Dax]

I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.

That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?

[Malcanis]

I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.

That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?

I could speculate any number of possibilities. Conventional responses are possible. Sanctions and isolation would be a certainty. A lot would depend on what form the event took a low kiloton device used away from a city or even out in the Black Sea is one thing; a megaton device that erases Kyiv and a million Ukrainians is another.

In any case, we should remember that regardless of rhetoric, taking even a small part of Ukraine is ultimately not necessary for Russia's national survival. Losing an adventurist war is embarrassing and expensive but not necessarily an immediate existential threat to the country or the state or even Putin - life could go on. On the other hand, provoking a nuclear response is the end of all those things.

[Lief Siddhe]

I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.

That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?

Drones

[VARRAKK]

I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.

That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?

Strikes on Russia would probably result in a nuclear war.
Most likely they become Big North Korea.

[Candy Crush]

plot twist: Russia nuked itself and blame NATO

edit: Russia under Czar Putin



So I suppose to be afraid?

[Siv]

Regarding retaking Crimea & ordering some sort of nuclear strike, the two interesting questions probably are "would Russia consider Ukraine retaking Crimea to be a existential threat", and "does anybody on the Russian side actually give a shit about rules lawyering at that point anymore".

I agree that Putin appears he doesn't give a shit about rules anymore, well kind of, otherwise he would have called this officially a war and everything that comes with that already. He has to fear that an all out official war will result in a domestic revolution. On the other hand he has to consider the reaction of the West and somewhat China if he uses a tactical nuke so he is kind of restricted aka bind to rules.

You can discuss the reaction of the West in case of a tactical nuke but if you think it through even if you start with a low response, after escalation and escalation, it will end in a nuclear war at least on a tactical level in Europe. I really hope we won't see that end of the rope.

We'll see, I think he's doing this to make his mark in the history books. If it requires him to push the button he might do it if it means he'll be remembered infamously.

Putin is still fighting the cold war, his intention is to return Russia to where it was 50 years ago on the world stage. This is why he puts so much effort into influencing the west to fracture them apart. Any nuclear use would instantly bring together the rest of the world against Russia and his goals will fail. Anything is possible I don't see nuke use as likely because it will end far worse for Russia.

[teds :D]

Usage of a nuke will end very badly for Russia and result in the subdivision of Russia into permanent occupation zones.

lol ok, how?

[evil edna]

All that horse cum is rotting the lads brain

[Jori McKie]

I think it's highly likely that Russia has been quietly informed that they can let talk show hosts blather all they want, but actual use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine (or anywhere else close to NATO) will result in immediate reactions they won't like.

That's an interesting topic. What would a response look like? Deleting Kaliningrad/Sevastopol with a conventional strike? Global condemnation and more sanctions? Actual NATO troops in Ukraine?

I could speculate any number of possibilities. Conventional responses are possible. Sanctions and isolation would be a certainty. A lot would depend on what form the event took a low kiloton device used away from a city or even out in the Black Sea is one thing; a megaton device that erases Kyiv and a million Ukrainians is another.

In any case, we should remember that regardless of rhetoric, taking even a small part of Ukraine is ultimately not necessary for Russia's national survival. Losing an adventurist war is embarrassing and expensive but not necessarily an immediate existential threat to the country or the state or even Putin - life could go on. On the other hand, provoking a nuclear response is the end of all those things.

Although i think the possibility for any sort of nuke is still low, there is one possible trigger point and that is Crimea. Putin regards Crimea as Russian territory and of course Crimea is important for the Russian navy to rule the Black Sea aka Sewastopol.
I'm hesitating to go through the possibilities of a tactical nuke and the NATO/US response but for the sake of my mind.

Premise:
Lets look at the possible US response and leave China and the rest of Nato out of it for now. I don't doubt that the US has plans ready for most scenarios. Of course there are lots of other differentiated responses possible i didn't thought of.

- A kiloton device is used over non inhabitant land/sea as a warning.
Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc
Unlikely response -> US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.

- A kiloton device is used over Ukraine troops and killed soldiers
Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc
Unlikely response -> US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.

- A kiloton device is used over a smaller city killing lots of civilians
This could be the threshold for the US to get directly involved but i doubt it
Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc
Unlikely response -> US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.

- A megaton device is used over Kyiv or any other bigger city like Odessa etc.
Likely response -> total trade embargo on Russia, Ukraine gets any hardware they want now including hard wing planes, helis etc. US gets directly involved with troops and a no fly zone will be established.
very unlikely response -> US will counter with a nuke of it's own



The last scenario is were the escalation chain really starts, what happens if Russia nukes US soldiers on Ukraine ground to stop the inevitable.

Maybe i'm totally wrong and the US/Nato won't respond to any kind of nuke with any sort of involvement but that opens another can of worms. The world will see that MAD don't work and Russia will have won the war as Ukraine has to surrender.


This artcile fits in what i'm thinking:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/o...tin-biden.html

[Malcanis]

I think you're leaving out other possible responses such as:

- Broad spectrum information warfare is applied to Russia, of the Stuxnet variety and any other such fuckery that has been dreamed up since
- Mass scale doxxing of Russian intelligence operatives working abroad, plus possibly the names of those they've been dealing with
- A large number of countries either scale back to a consul level or end diplomatic relations with Russia altogether.
- Mass scale seizure of all Russian assets and accounts
- Mysterious accidents happen to Russian assets eg: naval vessels outside Russian territorial waters, aircraft outside their airspace, etc.

[Jori McKie]

I think you're leaving out other possible responses such as:

- Broad spectrum information warfare is applied to Russia, of the Stuxnet variety and any other such fuckery that has been dreamed up since
- Mass scale doxxing of Russian intelligence operatives working abroad, plus possibly the names of those they've been dealing with
- A large number of countries either scale back to a consul level or end diplomatic relations with Russia altogether.
- Mass scale seizure of all Russian assets and accounts
- Mysterious accidents happen to Russian assets eg: naval vessels outside Russian territorial waters, aircraft outside their airspace, etc.

Yep, all possible. Thing is when does the escalation chain starts and where does it ends. Without a proper response from US/Nato after Putin used a tactical nuke even only as a warning, Putin may think well that was underwhelming, lets nuke actual Ukraine troops and see what happens then.
It's a dilemma the response has to be serious but don't escalate?

On a more light note, this made me laugh and that was needed:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...comedy/629850/

[El Capitano]

If Russia went with the tactical nuke option, the US could respond with a targeted non-nuclear strike of equivalent power. It wouldn't be that hard for them to do.

[Keckers]

It makes you wonder the balance of value that existed between the soviet states. Just how important from an academic, technological, productive standpoint were the Russians compared to the east germans, ukrainians, georgians, armenians etc? Or has there really been such an immense brain drain within Russia over the past few decades?